Public sentiment is a mix of concern, frustration, and skepticism regarding the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India. Both countries are criticized for prioritizing military enhancement over socio-economic development, with nuclear modernization, aided by China, adding complexity. Despite fears of conflict, many believe nuclear deterrents will prevent full-scale war. Commenters urge a focus on cooperation to tackle poverty and governance issues, while international interference complicates perspectives.

Pakistan

India

China

I mean, their first Nuke test was conducted at CCP's Lop Nor.  The ties go way back.

BombayWallahFan

SS: In bilateral talks this year, Pakistan asked China for a nuclear second-strike capability in exchange for the Gwadar Port—a demand that was rebuffed by China . Access to Gwadar would allow China to break free from U.S. naval blockades on its vital energy shipments in the Strait of Malacca .In return for Gwadar, Pakistani officials taking part in the talks have asked Beijing to provide sweeping indemnification against any political, economic, and diplomatic blowback that Islamabad may suffer from the U.S. over granting the port to China, as well as support with modernizing its military and intelligence capacities to keep pace with rival India

seek_a_new

Why are 3rd world countries so obsessed with weapons instead of you know bread and butter issues?

Crazy_Banana_5558

How legit is this source? Doesn’t Pakistan already have second strike capability?

Cowfan798

Without Chinese help Pakistan would never had any nukes. China is probably regretting it now, since Pakistan is getting dangerously close to being overwhelmed by jihadi ideology.

humtum6767

This is far from the first time that these two countries have fought each other, but hopefully this one doesn't escalate into a full on war

j-e-m-8-8-8

My college professor 20yrs ago said that's the place for WW3 to start

CeleryCommercial3509

Weird, i have friends there... I plan to meet them. I pray it's not getting worse...

Pfirsich90

I swear there is some diabolical thinktank out there that has deduced nuclear winter is the only way to solve global warming so are pulling strings to get nations to inch closer to some violent population control comboed with terraforming.

StateChemist

Don't get why people think WWIII will start.

Zero reason for any country to escalate beyond diplomacy. A nuclear exchange would be horrible, but only they would be suffering from such attacks.

Sabre_One

Another war is just what the world need the least right now. Scumbags like Putin are probably very happy that war is the new norm now.

tbdwr

I feel like it's a situation similar to Israel &amp; Palestine.  You have two countries, that are being egged on to hate each other driven by religious and central government figureheads.  All the while they sit in safe bunkers or separate countries, piling up money and power while they play war with the lives of peasants they could give zero fucks about. 

When the bullets and bombs start flying, the countries will cry victim and ask for aid.  While the leaders continue to live comfortably and immune from consequences. I don't know if I believe in hell, but if there is hell; and these paper tiger generals aren't there the gods of the universe failed creation.

fisetylime

Honestly, it makes me very uncomfortable with Islamist ideology and its spread. I know that there’s always back-and-forth in conflict between groups, and I am aware that India has acted in ways that have caused harm to civilians, but I also understand that when Islamists fight it is a never-ending conflict.

YogiBarelyThere

[deleted]

pm_ur_pendulousboobs

I just look at them brigading all social media posts and arguing with each other.. I expect protests in front of their respective embassies worldwide. They all embarass themselves with their behaviour.

Pakistans government is a joke, run by the military and a vassal state (I'm Pakistani). 

India's government is very anti-Muslim with an awful leader (look at his history, he encourages division in India for political gain).

Both countries are shitholes that would do much better if they collaborated with each other and eliminated corruption and terrorism. Unfortunately, that's too simple of a solution, so they will continue to fight over Kashmir and water rights for the next decade.

Mohammed-Yusef

Uneasy, but glad they are on the far side of the planet.

JuanOfThree

My grandmother had a saying translating like "go wherever you want, die whenever you must". I m starting to see it very wise the older I become.

BalmdeBono

UK is about to become a whole lot bloodier.

zzgamma

QuantumConversation

I have long felt this was the most dangerous global warming secondary effect outcome of a nuclear war that starts over decreasing fresh water between these countries.

scientician

Nothing, too busy listening russian missiles exploding in the near neighborhood. But there's no wonder that russian allies started another war by attacking Pakistan

inokentii

Maybe my head is in the sand but I’m not too too worried. I’ve seen this play before.

I’m going to guess that Pakistan will retaliate by calling the act “deplorable” then shoot their own missles. India will retaliate with its own force and then it’s back to proxy warfare while both governments shout insults back and forth

Great_THROWSWAY_589

I feel that this decades long tension is exactly where everyone needs it to be. To drop a bomb will piss off too many people, but the constant concern and threats to the other side helps the right-wing just enough to make them think their Gov. is 'doing something', and just enough for the left-wing to continue to vote and elect people that will fight against it. Stalemate? Yup.

louisasnotes

Yeah, I don’t see the whole world being drawn in.

saterned

this situation triggers the feeling that the same shit happened with Ukraine n palastine both countries were used as pawn drim many global powers for their own benefits and now it looks like it's pakistan turn off being used n may b used to project india as a bad country also

donutgut

Another war of stupidity. Neither side will win.

This would not have happened if Harris had been president. It is all Joe Biden's fault. Trump is probably busy trying to find Pakistan ont the map.

Vivid-Asparagus7170

Well, I knew there have been long-ongoing tensions, but that's about all I know, so I'm not gonna jump at having an opinion about something I'm clueless about 😅

Generally I just wish for peace and am mildly annoyed that it seems humanity is inherently unable to keep from killing each other for more than a few years.

SleepySera

"Not this shit again."

I expect this will probably go somewhere along the lines between the 2019 clashes and the 1999 Kargil war, both took place while both sides had nuclear weapons and neither side used them in both. 

If the fighting starts spreading consistently outside of the Kashmir region then I'll consider getting concerned but until then it's just business as usual.

Electricfox5

llililill

They hate each other and it’s Gandhi’s fault

Willysmuck

it's time to remember about Nuclear Gandhi prophecy

glubokoslav

adiking27

As long as the US stays the fuck out of it, I don't really care.

Baloney_Boogie

Not really too worried honestly. These two countries have done this time and again, but never fully commit to all out war. Both have outsized egos but know the risks. They just need someone to talk them down as an excuse to back down. They both realize that a war with a near peer would be long and drawn out, and would benefit no one

Albertuscamus12

canyoufixmyspacebar

Sun Tzu spoke of what he called “attacking with a borrowed knife”. Which is to say, use a third party to attack an enemy and weaken them. 

With that said; I recall the spike in tensions between India and China in Ladakh which led to the death of forty Indian soldiers in a melee with PLA troops in the Galwan valley. Which makes me wonder, how involved is China in the killing coming out of Pakistan? 

China’s financial and military support of Hamas and the Houthi is an open secret, besides, Pakistan gave safe haven to the terrorists the United States was attempting to rid the world of during the occupation of Afghanistan 

Go India, and watch your eastern border for Chinese surprise attacks 

Cheap-Bell-4389

i feel like WW5 is about to kick off 

before you get upset - the cold war war WW3, and the global war on terror was WW4.

BaconHammer9000

Technologically advanced; socially, not so much. Stupidity+power=danger.

Heavy_Direction1547

Pakistan has deserved this for long damn time

No_Magazine_2293

Inevitable based on how Britain split this former colony

acousticburrito

Feels like more trolling will happen on reddit. Allah bots vs bjp bots let's roll

hangender

maler27

It is stupid. 
Two countries have a fight over nothing, probably to make people look away from real problems.
I do, however, not think that any of the two countries have any interest in a large-scale war. But it can go on for years.

Nordjyde

I just hope one of them is brave enough to use a nuclear warhead, im sick and tired of going to work

Away_Extension_9077

Scares the shit out of me. Pakistan culture has nukes! Never should have happened.

Big-block427

satan-spawner

Does anybody else find the language around the India-Pakistan conflict really strange? I'm not familiar with Pakistani discourse, but Indians (especially in the media) often talk about 'punishing' Pakistan, or 'teaching them a lesson'. 

This is quite a weird way to think about defense, to say the least. It seems to frame war as a sort of communicative device between states, rather than as the appalling last resort of a state where communication has absolutely broken down. This is not only a dangerous mentality, but it's also very silly: wars almost never lead to clear and cooperative exchange, and when they do, it's usually at a cost neither side would choose to pay.

passabagi

If you go to the author's website: https://www.arzantarapore.com/, there is a free link to the article in a PDF. I did not want to link directly to the PDF, and the author's website does not have a page dedicated to this work specifically. So this is a little work around.

------------------

A description of the article from Stanford's website:

*Arzan Tarapore analyzes key factors in the India–Pakistan military dynamic to explore how internal and external factors account to balance the military dynamic between the volatile conflict and prevent any major escalations in disputes. Tarapore argues that geography, economic fragility, strategic implications, and a variety of other qualitative factors serve to deter the two nations from any major conflict escalation.*

--------------------

&gt; * The strategic rivalry between India and Pakistan has traditionally been the most consequential fault line in the international relations of South Asia. It has sparked four wars, constantly threatens more conflict, drains the national coffers of two massive developing countries, and routinely hampers all attempts at regional cooperation.Yet it persists unabated, even though, by most quantitative measures, the conventional military balance is lopsided. 

&gt; * India can amass significantly more military power than Pakistan: its defence budget is six times larger ($60.5 billion compared with $10.3 billion), its military has more than twice as many personnel (about 1,445,000 compared with about 653,000), and it operates significantly more tanks (3,565 compared with 2,433), artillery guns (9,719 compared with 4,595), combat aircraft (776 compared with 404), principal surface ships (27 compared with 9), and so on (IISS 2020).This imbalance is as old as partition, and will endure indefinitely – it is a feature of the structural disparity in the India– Pakistan rivalry, where India’s population and economy are several times larger than Pakistan’s. 

&gt; * This chapter shows that the conventional military balance between two countries is more nuanced and contextual than a simple numerical comparison would suggest. 

&gt; * …defence spending accounts for 8.8% of India’s national budget, and 18.4% of Pakistan’s (World Bank 2020a) 

&gt; * In both India and Pakistan, however, jointness is grossly underdeveloped. 

&gt; * The respective Armies represent by far the most potent force each side can muster, with the Air Force and Navy playing supporting roles at best – and are often an afterthought in contingency planning. 

&gt; * A pair of recent studies assessed the character and quality of the Pakistani and Indian officer corps, respectively, using a large body of rare observations of their command and staff colleges (Smith 2018, 2020).The studies showed, using systematic evidence rather than anecdotes, that the mid- and senior-level officers of each army share much of the same core organisational culture and ethos relating to secular and apolitical armed forces. Some of their technical and doctrinal military expertise may deviate from U.S. standards of best practice, but there was little notable gap in the comparative quality between individual Indian and Pakistani military leaders. 

&gt; * For example, about 56% of the Indian Air Force’s combat aircraft, and about 64% of the Pakistan Air Force’s combat aircraft, are considered ‘legacy’ systems that were designed during the Cold War (IISS 2020: 221). 

&gt; * First, modernisation is extremely difficult for both countries to afford. 

&gt; * While it (India) has recently increased its acquisitions from the United States, the bulk of its military equipment remains Russian-origin, which creates a path- dependent reliance on Russia for continued replacement and maintenance support, as well as access to high-technology systems such as long-range air defence. Pakistan, recently cut off from the lavish military aid it received from the United States, is heavily dependent on China for its arms imports. 

&gt; * For example, India’s front-line Su-30MKI fighters normally suffer low serviceability rates of about 55–60% (Bedi 2017), meaning that nearly half of the vaunted Su-30MKI airframes in the Air Force’s inventory are unavailable for combat at any given time. 

&gt; * No matter how impressive is India’s quantitative advantage over Pakistan, its shortcomings in qualitative inputs to capability such as jointness and readiness – often irrespective of Pakistan’s capabilities – stand as a major hindrance to its ability to mobilise and apply military force. 

&gt; * Another major hindrance that serves to erode India’s quantitative advantages is geography.At the broadest level, geography disadvantages India because New Delhi faces pressing military threats in two opposite directions, from Pakistan and China, which compels India to divide its forces. 

&gt; * India’s worst-case scenario, and its most taxing defence planning construct, is a ‘collusive’ threat leading to a two-front war. 

&gt; * The Thar Desert, further south in Sindh, presents fewer built obstacles, thereby offering better prospects for penetrating armoured assaults. But with negligible political or economic value, Pakistan has deliberately kept those areas empty as a strategically secondary buffer zone (Ladwig 2015: 15). 

&gt; * Any major conventional offensive, moreover, is likely to come with ample warning to allow the defender to mobilise. 

&gt; * But precisely because such surreptitious actions occurred, both sides are increasingly attuned and postured to prevent such fait accompli campaigns in the future. 

&gt; * On the ground, then, the military balance approximates local parity – India’s aggregate numerical superiority offers no meaningful advantage. 

&gt; * For India, military strategy against Pakistan is designed around two key tasks.The first is to deter and defeat any Pakistani attempts to attack or surreptitiously seize Indian territory – most likely in Kashmir.This was the driving mission of the Indian military from the moment of par- tition, through all its wars with Pakistan, including the Kargil conflict in 1999.The second key mission is to threaten or use military force to compel Pakistan to desist from its subconventional campaign of supporting terrorism against India. 

&gt; * First, Pakistan is not a rational security-seeking state which weighs the costs and benefits of its subconventional campaign. It is, instead, an ideologically revisionist state for which competition with India and the cause of seizing control of Kashmir are the primary organising principle of national security policy.India holds no serious revanchist intent and has long sought to codify the status quo of a divided Kashmir; but Pakistan – and especially the Pakistan Army, which dominates the state – remains convinced that India seeks to subjugate or even destroy Pakistan, and is inveterately bent on undermining India,no matter how self-injurious that approach may be (Fair 2014).Accordingly, Pakistan’s pain threshold is high – it will absorb significant material damage before conceding to Indian coercion. 

&gt; * Pakistan’s military strategy sees force – in a continuous spectrum, from subconventional terrorism, through conventional arms, to nuclear weapons – as a tool to resist Indian hegemony and undermine Indian power. 

&gt; * As this historical evolution shows, Pakistan’s military strategy is asymmetric – it does not seek to counter India’s conventional military advantages primarily through conventional power. 

&gt; * Both Indian and Pakistani doctrine, therefore, suggest that India has no meaningful conven- tional military advantage over Pakistan. India’s strategy of punishment demands decisive advan- tages, and short of that superiority, any marginal Indian advantages are strategically irrelevant. Pakistan’s subconventional asymmetric strategy and tactical nuclear weapons render the conven- tional military balance less relevant as a source of national security and power.The ways these militaries use force, quite apart from their material conditions, suggests that the conventional balance approximates local parity, with a significant advantages for the defender. 

&gt; * …military capabilities are not determined by aggregate size or equipment inventories, but by a much broader and more complex range of qualitative factors. 

&gt; * A simple numerical comparison may suggest that India could easily deter and dominate Pakistan militarily – and in many ways such a lopsided balance may improve stability, governance, and prosperity in South Asia. But a more comprehensive comparison, accounting also for qualitative, geographic, and doctrinal factors, explains why the conventional military balance is much closer – almost local parity – and why, therefore, the India–Pakistan rivalry remains so intense, dangerous, and costly for all of South Asia. 

----------------

About the Author:

Arzan Tarapore, PhD Research Scholar at APARC

Arzan Tarapore is a Research Scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, where he is charged with restarting APARC's research effort on South Asia. He is also a senior nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research.

Tarapore’s research focuses on security issues in South Asia and the rapidly evolving strategic landscape of the wider Indo-Pacific. Prior to his scholarly career, he served for 13 years in the Australian Defence Department in various analytic, management, and liaison positions, including operational deployments and a diplomatic posting to the Australian Embassy in Washington, DC.

https://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/people/arzan-tarapore

TermsOfContradiction

Interesting to see a proper article on the subject of parity between India and Pakistan, it's something that I've been talking about for a few years now.

If things come to war between Pakistan and India, the two forces should be about evenly matched. Overall this is because of logistics, the different level of cohesion between the three services in the Pakistani and Indian militaries, and different approaches to modernization.

It comes down to smart decisions made by the Pakistani High Command that lead to efficient and effective ways to maintain parity with India, and Pakistan getting more bang out of its buck with a smaller military budget than India does despite being an 8x larger country with a proportional economy and military budget.

I'll try to explain what I mean by this as best as I can, but the most major point is:

**The Indian armed forces are a logistical nightmare whose modernization process has been severely undercut by political choices driving its military acquisitions.**

I should start off by saying that what you see of the official figures of Pakistan's military budget is not accurate, it is probably much higher than it seems, double by my estimate and is being paid for through:

* The business empire worth billions maintained by the Pakistani military.
* Through deployment of military personnel overseas in official capacity as instructors and such, and the more "under-the-table" capacity as troops serving in select militaries in the Gulf.
* Chinese support in some manner or another (I know that it exists because the amount modernization that the Pakistani military has been going through seems impossible to achieve otherwise).

The Pakistani military has considerable autonomy from (or rather control over) the country's politicians and because of this they can modernize in a sensible and effective way without:

* Making asinine purchases.
* Be bound by red tape.
* Try to fulfil current hardware needs by trying to manufacture them indigenously just for benefit in domestic politics and cancelling perfectly sound plans to purchase equipment from foreign countries.

The average soldier's gear has long been improved as the war in North-West progressed. The following is Pakistan's current military acquisition plan which has emerged since 2018, a lot of these systems have already been inducted:

**Pakistan Army -**

* [JY-27A RADAR](https://quwa.org/2019/11/21/pakistan-apparently-received-a-jy-27a-radar-from-china/).
* [HQ-16 Air Defence System](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2019/04/10/what-does-pakistan-need-to-close-its-air-defense-gaps/).
* [HQ-9 Air Defence System](https://www.janes.com/amp/pakistan-army-commissions-hq-9p-air-defence-system/ZnlJK3dHVU9mZ28xajRJVkc5dVI5VFp1cVMwPQ2).
* [VT4 Tanks](https://www.dawn.com/news/1632542).
* [Truck-mounted, SH-15 Howitzers](https://theprint.in/defence/pakistans-latest-weapon-from-china-state-of-the-art-nuclear-capable-sh-15-howitzer/156671/%3famp).
* [Z-10ME Attack Helicopters](https://www.globalvillagespace.com/china-to-sell-z-10me-choppers-to-pakistan-as-turkish-deal-fails/?amp) (Procurement in progress).

**Pakistan Air Force -**

* [J-10C Fighter Jets](https://tribune.com.pk/story/2347447/paf-formally-inducts-j-10c-multi-role-combat-aircraft)
* [JF-17 Fighter Jets](https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/01/the-first-serial-production-jf-17-block-iii-are-showing-up/) \- Coproduced.
* HQ-9 Air Defence System - Separate from those that the army is getting.
* YLC-8E Radar.
* Bayraktar Akinci Drones.
* [Bayraktar TB-2 Drones](https://monch.com/pakistan-alleged-to-have-acquired-bayraktar-tb2-uavs/) \- co-produced.
* [Wing Loong drones](https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/china-pakistan-to-co-produce-48-strike-capable-wing-loong-ii-drones/) \- co-produced.
* [TFX 5th Gen Fighter jet](https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/turkey-pakistan-to-jointly-develop-fifth-generation-fighter-aircraft) \- To be Coproduced with Turkey.

**Pakistan Navy -**

* [8 Yuan-Class Stealth Attack Submarines](https://thediplomat.com/2016/08/china-to-supply-pakistan-with-8-new-stealth-attack-submarines-by-2028/) (With ToT).
* [4 Chinese 054 A/P Frigates](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/pakistans-navy-inducts-chinese-built-frigate/2415249) \- most advanced warships in the region.
* [Z-9D Helicopters for the Frigates](https://defensetalks.com/pakistan-navy-to-buy-z-9d-helicopter-for-thugril-class-frigates/).
* [4 Milgem Corvettes](https://www.naval-technology.com/news/pakistan-milgem-class-corvette-launched/) (With ToT).
* Jinnah Class Frigates (under development).
* [Sea Sultan Maritime Patrol Aircraft](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/09/first-sea-sultan-maritime-patrol-aircraft-joins-pakistan-navy/).
* P-282 Hypersonic Anti-Ship Missiles (under development).

Take note of how much of this hardware is from China. Other confirmed developments like:

* National ISR &amp; Integrated Air Operations Centre.
* PAF Cyber Force.
* Space Tech R&amp;D Center.
* Pakistan Air Force Space Command (Was revealed during COAS visit to AHQ last year and is probably related to the Chinese space mission where a Pakistani astronaut is also going).
* CENTAIC (an AI center for managing air defense under the control of the PAF).

All point to the Pakistani military moving towards "Network Centric Warfare" capability with major Chinese assistance in material, funds, and expertise.

ValidStatus

If you are interested in security issues of India and south Asia then you might also be interested in this 3d mapping of the border between India and China. 

-------------

*A 3D deep dive into the India–China border*

&gt; ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre has built 3D satellite imagery— through the collection and analysis of new satellite imagery and using open-source datasets we have compiled (such as geolocated military &amp; infrastructure positions) —to help assess current developments along the India–China border.

https://pageflow.aspi.org.au/mappingdoklam#313455

https://www.aspi.org.au/report/3d-deep-dive-india-china-border

&gt; ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre has built 3D satellite imagery— through the collection and analysis of new satellite imagery and using open-source datasets we have compiled (such as geolocated military &amp; infrastructure positions) —to help assess current developments along the India–China border.

I just find it monumentally stupid that these two nations with much a shared history are at loggerheads with each other. Both nations would benefit from peace and economic cooperation but unfortunately this is the legacy of how the British exited India in a terrible manner.

One concern for India is that even though it does have a numerical and technological advantage it can never fully deploy all her forces against Pakistan because China is a far more pressing threat.

Viromen

This is a reality check for India. We need to use our conventional strength to punish Pakistan for the use of its asymmetric warfare. Otherwise as the article states we're near parity at best

jaeger123

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We all know it will be used against India .

We must develop missile defence technology for the entire country

Crafty_Turnover240

Guess what America, Turkey, Qatar, UAE going to fund and help this project. 

American needs Pak to use it against India. Now they have Bangladesh too thanks to the coup. Also China clearly said we will involve in the war not just occupying your borders but also do proxy wars with India. 

We can’t rely on Russian look at their war, there is no conclusion to it. It shows more weak signs on Russia than Ukraine. 

We are in the most vulnerable place than ever more from inside than outside. Look at what’s happening all around us
- north west war
- north east domestic war, foreign ngos funded, China occupying land and new threat Bangla 
- south influenced by usaid and other foreign tools that finds ways to divide India Ex: Christian conversions. 

not just this we have opposition who’s seeking foreign influence to run a coup and destroy the democracy 


I don’t how we are still moving forward with all these and lol we are not even a capitalist country.

(All these were found on the internet, do your due diligence) 

pkm_idol

and we will be taking the help of russians again, US are the backstabbers, the world knows of it, it can never be anybody's friend. it only wants to rule over everybody with an iron fist , but India and Russia are quite different, we weren't bullied during the 71 war , nor during the Pokhran nuclear test not will be bullied by the west into believing whatever pakistan does or says. A nation which dropped nuclear bombs not one but two is now talking about peace and ceasefire...f the yanks..period

Background-Spring140

They will soon take loan from imf to finance a "gift" for the president

child_target

IIN_IIPM

China is Modernizing the nuclear arsenal eh? If their failed air defence and aliexpress fighter jets are an indicator, the Chinese help in nuclear development is only going to ensure that Pakistan likely nukes itself lmao. China, UAE, Qatar and Turkey (lmao) are going to sink more money into that unflushed toilet of a country and be even more poorer for it.

Choosy_Asclepius

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## What will it take for Pakistan to become friends with India

Celebrations of 75 years of Indian independence have been accompanied by questions of what has changed and what hasn’t. One thing that certainly hasn’t changed is a state of hostility between India and Pakistan. Independence’s flip side was Partition, which ensured that not one nation but two (later to become three) nations were born out of the womb of pre-independence India. Partition left an estimated 1 million dead and 14 million displaced – the largest mass migration in history.

Moreover, the legacy of Partition lives on, in the form of the bitterness and hatred we see between India and Pakistan today. But are things fated to remain this way, and will we be repeating this when, say, the 100th anniversary of Indian (and Pakistani) independence comes around? Or will Indians and Pakistanis also celebrate their friendship that day and wonder how their relationship got so toxic in the intervening period? After all England and France too fought, on and off, a Hundred Years War – but that state of hostility no longer exist.

The standard, cynical reply is to brush off that possibility, and presume that India and Pakistan will be forever at each other’s throats. However, nothing stays the same in international relations. Global geopolitics – a prime contributor to India-Pakistan rivalry – has changed fundamentally and continues to transform. This creates fresh opportunities for moving beyond Partition’s toxic legacies. That isn’t a slam dunk, of course. A lot depends on whether Pakistani and Indian leaderships can sagaciously seize those opportunities.


Pakistan sees Kashmir as a core issue between India and Pakistan, an " unfinished agenda of Partition”. From Islamabad’s perspective the “K” in Pakistan stands for Kashmir, which makes Pakistan incomplete without it. Nothing can move forward between India and Pakistan till the Kashmir issue is settled. And the onus for settling Kashmir is on India, not on Pakistan.

From the Indian perspective Pakistan is already in illegal occupation of a portion of Kashmir – PoK – which became a part of India when Kashmir’s princely ruler, Hari Singh, signed the Instrument of Accession in India’s favor. If Pakistan wants all of “K” (for Kashmir) will it next lay claim to all of “P” (for Punjab) because that letter too is in Pakistan’s name? “Unfinished agendas” of Partition won’t do, because India is finished with it. It’s prepared to live with the consequences of Partition, provided Islamabad doesn’t rake it up either and shows readiness to move on. That would entail accepting India as it is, instead of embarking on a doomed quest for “strategic parity” with India.

This dispute, however, has been ratified by South Asia’s complex geopolitics. Islamabad became a trusted broker between Washington and Beijing when they didn’t have direct contact with each other. That paved the way for the Nixon-Mao rapprochement of 1972. Further, when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, Pakistan became the base of a multinational jihad – aided by both the US and China – against the Soviet invasion.

The successful prosecution of that jihad left Pakistan awash with American arms and aid, while the Chinese supplied Pakistan with materials and know how for nuclear weapons. When the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan the jihad template was transferred to Kashmir, and a Pakistan-aided insurgency exploded in the region. Pakistan, calculating that its newfound nuclear prowess conferred on it immunity from a conventional Indian response – such as the one that bogged down its last attempt to grab Kashmir by force of arms in 1965 – launched the Kargil war.

That war, however, had unexpected consequences from Pakistan’s point of view. A state using nuclear coercion in an attempt to expand its territory by force (much like Russia is doing in Ukraine these days) alarmed Washington, and it piled pressure on Islamabad to withdraw its troops behind the LoC. Soon after US President Bill Clinton declared in Islamabad, in a speech carried live on Pakistani television, that “there is no military solution in Kashmir” and “this era does not reward people who struggle to redraw borders with blood”. He received a rapturous welcome when he came to Delhi and addressed Parliament, a visit that was to transform the US-India relationship in the new millennium.

China is funding Pakistan's long-held dream of having a deep sea port at Gwadar. Islamabad has placed too many of its eggs in the Chinese basket

Improving US-India relations made Islamabad fall into a tighter embrace with Beijing, and the two worked together to contain India. That, however, gives Islamabad little cushion against having to follow China’s strategic priorities. When the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – conceived as the lynchpin of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an opaque geo-economic enterprise – was being negotiated in 2015 Ashraf Mahmood Wathra, Governor of Pakistan’s Central Bank, complained that even he did not know what CPEC’s debt implications were.

It makes sense for India-Pakistan to improve relations
Now Pakistan is deeply mired in debt and its foreign exchange reserves are running out, leaving it staring at a Sri Lanka-type economic crisis even as CPEC is running aground. The IMF has demanded to know, as a precondition for bailing Pakistan out, what its debt obligations are under CPEC and also that it should re-negotiate those loans. That leaves Pakistan facing a catch-22 situation, as Beijing has indicated its refusal to re-negotiate the loans.

In its bid to contain India, Islamabad has placed too many of its eggs in the Chinese basket and ended up arresting its own economic development. It can, of course, persist in this futile enterprise. But a wiser tack would be to diversify and place some eggs in the Indian basket as well. Winding down its jihad machine would earn it not just India’s but global gratitude, and make it an attractive place for foreign, non-Chinese investment. As things stand, even the Chinese are re-evaluating their investments in Pakistan.

FuhrerIsCringe

Even if we disintegrate pakistan like USSR their ideology of being anti polytheist won't go away the newly created small nations will going to have weak governments and institutions this will eventually led to be a ideal ground to nurture Radical jihadist 


I can't say how accurate my example will be but even though Jordan and Egypt are at peace with Israel they are still used as a associate for anti Israel activites

AnuAhir

I haven't read the article but wrt Pakistan, or any country for that matter, we really need to ask ourselves what do we gain by having a partnership with them and what will we loose. And keep sentiments out of it. None of the brotherhood, long-lost friends, ancient ties stuff. Purely economic, security, political etc terms. 

For Pakistan, none of the dimensions are in its favor. We seek to lose 10x for every thing we normalise with them. 

1. Economics - They are not a big enough market and will never be. Literally being behind Bangladesh which is a fourth it's size and smaller in population with very similar societies. Also, they are probably the only large country where literacy rates are actually falling. 

2. Security - Again, nothing to gain but everything to lose here. Anyone who even after 4 wars imposed by Pakistan on us and decades long terror bombings of our cities feels that we're going to change any hearts is a fool and must be ignored with haste.

3. Political - Normalisation with Pakistan is political suicide for any leader in India and it has been amply demonstrated across PMs. Not because our population wouldn't have it but because Pakistan and Pakistanis (yeah even citizens) cannot help but keep attacking us violently every now and then. 

4. International - India tried to resolve all issues with Pakistan in the past even at great costs to us internally. Read up Indus Water Treaty, Shimla Agreement and other such deals we have made to understand how much unjust we have been to ourselves. Did it lead to any kind of political mileage internationally? Nope. Nothing, Nada. If anything, the West still continues to view us as barbarians and brackets us with Pakistanis Islamists. 

So nothing to gain in any manner really. 

Our one single policy should be to isolate Pakistan and its sponsors completely. We literally led the isolation of apartheid South Africa globally and actually gained some leadership points for it. But we fail to do so when actual Indian lives are at stake. Extreme duplicity on part of our leadership as well. 

And total isolation means total. Zero cricket, zero trade, zero people to people connections officially. Any companies that want to remain in Pakistan must pack up their Indian operations. Working to get Pakistan ejected from UN, IMF, World Bank and any international associations. 

It's really time that we see Pakistan for what it is. ISIS with nukes. We must ask the West and other nations the hard questions as well. Will they tolerate ISIS with nukes in their neighbourhood? Will they normalise relations with it? If not, then why should we? Why do articles put the onus on normalisation on India? Are we crossing their borders to terrorise their citizens? If a country cannot do the absolutely bare minimum of staying within its borders, why should there be any kind of further steps from India?

Frankly, I'm losing hope with the current govt in India in this area as well given they are more inclined to the BCCI making some sweet monies playing with Pakistan than actual soldiers being killed in terror and border attacks. One can only hope that sanity prevails over whichever govt comes in next.

OnlineStranger1

Impossible, their whole existence is based around in hating India and Indians alike.

SeventyCents

IMIO, there is one solution that will solve this problem, a combination of what US achieved against USSR &amp; Japan. But current circumstances &amp; GoI capability hinder such a solution. This solution will work only after 2035, when the defense &amp; economic disparity is large enough to minimize the loss of life. Also by then, the reliance on imported Oil declines &amp; Oil money dries up which diminishes extremist funding. In the meantime, GoI needs to build up CIA like capabilities and actually recognize, plan, &amp; work on its long term objectives.

Nomad1900

let convert to islam , then i am damn sure that they will instantly become great great friend   
like bangladesh

Pakistan is modernizing its nuclear arsenal with help from China to counter India. This effort contributes to regional volatility and underscores the geopolitical complexities in South Asia.

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